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“A convincing case that careful analysis of the history, issues, individuals, and institutions can lead to better decisions—in business as well as in government” (BusinessWeek).
Two noted professors offer easily remembered rules for using history effectively in day-to-day management of governmental and corporate affairs to avoid costly blunders. “An illuminating guide to the use and abuse of history in affairs of state” (Arthur Schlesinger).
- Sales Rank: #72774 in Books
- Published on: 1988-01-25
- Released on: 1988-01-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.00" w x 6.00" l, .86 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 352 pages
About the Author
Richard E. Neustadt is Douglas Dillon Professor of Government in the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. For three decades an advisor to presidents, their aides, and to members of the cabinet, he is the author of Alliance Politics and the influential study, Presidential Power.
Most helpful customer reviews
66 of 70 people found the following review helpful.
An indispensable aid for decision makers.
By T. Graczewski
As an avid reader of history, I've long struggled with putting my learning to use in day-to-day situations, whether that be in evaluating critical business decisions or in helping me better observe and understand the world around me. On the one hand, there is the familiar aphorism attributed to George Santayana that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. But, on the other hand, each situation is truly unique, and the use of historical analogies is clearly fraught with pitfalls. "Thinking in Time" addresses this conundrum and provides a sound basis for using historical knowledge intelligently and responsibly.
To overcome the temptation of using history incorrectly, the authors put forward a specific process for decision makers in crisis situations, and they use case studies to highlight successes and failures in the use of history as guide to decision making. The case studies are all drawn from domestic and foreign policy scenarios, but the lessons are applicable to any organization (private sector, non-profit, etc.).
The authors' decision making methodology may seem a bit didactic or formulaic at first, but it is meant to be used with the greatest flexibility. The heart of the process is to establish a system of critical inquiry and resist the temptation to jump to the "options phase" of decision making immediately. Rather, the authors argue, focus clearly on the situation at hand and confirm the intended objective. This can be started by listing what is known, what is unclear and what is presumed about the situation. Next, analogies will come to mind or will likely be invoked for advocacy (intentionally or otherwise), so quickly highlight all the "likenesses" and "differences" between the present situation and the historical analogies. This should further clarify the present situation and the intended objectives
The authors suggest other tools that, while useful, are a bit more cumbersome than separating the known from the unclear from the presumed in any given situation, which I know do religiously at work. Some of the other techniques covered include laying out a timeline of the event, including major concurrent events along with the details; asking journalistic questions (where, how, why, what, etc.) for each major event along the timeline; setting odds for given "if - then" scenarios; explicitly laying out what kind of information (new "knowns") would change your various "presumeds"; and for various options asking "For the objective of X, Y is the best option because...."
In closing, "Thinking in Time" is one of the ten most influential books I've ever read. If you are in a leadership position in business, government or even the local lodge, this book can make you a more effective leader. The only thing I regret about reading "Thinking in Time" is that I didn't do it sooner.
1 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
a guide to history in policy making
By Ben Uziel
clear and inciteful guide to how to utilize the lessons of history in making sound and prudent decisions. I find it clear and except for the chapter on social security it keeps you engaged. Provides you the right questions to ask when trying to find a historical precedent to guide future actions. The lessons are simple and cogent and should be required reading in any masters program in government. This book will be a benefit to any reader.
7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Reflections in History's Mirror
By L. King
Created for their single semester Harvard course for training political decision makers, authors Neustadt and May's historiography focuses on a several recent American turning points and examines how historical precedent either did or could have persuaded those involved. The book intrigues on multiple levels, first as a comparison between similar events, second as a profile of the personalities involved such as Kennedy, LBJ, Reagan and Carter, third as a set of methods for outlining perspectives and finally, even though the book is 26 years old and predates the collapse of the Soviet Union, the subjects discussed such as health care, social entitlements and military confrontation are still relevant today, even more so today in light of the 2012 election cycle.
Any methodology has the benefit of crystallizing the issues. N&M's approach advises the guarded use of analogy. Having selected one of more exemplars they suggest outlining the similarities and differences between them and the current situation. Since our knowledge of events are incomplete, categorize features as "Known", "Unknown" and "Presumed". Instead of describing the problem, an approach that might bias the conclusion, tell the story and tell it from the perspective of different actors. In addition to asked the 5W's, ask "Alexander's Question" - what new information might challenge the "Presumed" items and lead to a different course of action. Additionally they recommend "Placement" - creating a timeline of events in the lives of key players in order to understand their motivation. The technique is nicely summarized at the end of the book.
The case studies are marvelous and include LBJ's intense use of placement as a political tool (allegedly saying: I never feel really comfortable with a man unless I have his pecker in my pocket), the wide range of historic parallels used by Kennedy's emergency cabinet during the Cuban missile crisis, Truman's extensive knowledge of and ability to ability to apply history without which he is easily misread, and the key insight into Reagan that he was influenced positively by the New Deal and had a deep and genuine admiration for FDR's approach to leadership. Another good case was the debate and planning for the 1977 Swine Flu (more recent examples would be the preventative regime implemented to combat SARS or the awareness campaign and infrastructure created in reaction to AIDS) which was strongly linked to the pandemic of 1918 which killed a half million Americans and had more victims by the end of WWI than the war itself! N&M also connect the problems of the Carter presidency to a lack of use of historic analogy for insight. With his tendency to sermonize they likened Carter to a Baptist preacher, surrounded by like mannered people, who tended to assume the moral high ground rather than constructively engage with others, an example being his treatment of German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt. Like FDR he engaged in fireside chats with the nation, but whereas FDR was uplifting, Carter's broadcasts were more downbeat and depressing. N&M also focus on the failure of the SALT II disarmament talks and Carter's fractious relationship with leading Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson, but surprisingly neglect what was, at least on first inspection, his major success, the Camp David Accords.
I was especially intrigued by the rivalry between Francis Perkins, US Secretary of Labour during the Depression and WW II and Mary Anderson, Director of the Woman's bureau and subordinate to her. The two came from different backgrounds but had similar feminist ideals - yet Anderson made the tactical mistake of alienating Perkins by accusing her of betraying ideals, which she was not rather than working within the framework of finding common goals. The result allowed Anderson to keep her position, but damaged her advancement.
The last chapter is a paean to reading history and makes a number of excellent though ambitious recommendations. The authors tend to favour accounts written by individuals close in time to events, especially autobiographies, ie Ulysses S. Grant , or wielding influence such as Churchill , rather than recent historians who run the risk of layering too much hindsight based on outcomes. The book informs, entertains and elevates the level of discussion leading one to seek out similar approaches to historic interpretation.
A great read and highly recommended.
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